Wharton@Work

November 2025 | 

Lucky By Design: Create Advantage from Chance

Lucky By Design: The Hidden Rules That Create Advantage from Chance

When Wharton economist Judd Kessler talks about luck, he doesn’t mean the kind that comes from chance encounters or lottery tickets. He’s talking about a version you can create: luck that results from understanding how systems work and learning to navigate them strategically. The premise is as empowering as it is practical. Instead of attributing success to fortune, he shows in his new book, Lucky by Design, how individuals and organizations can recognize the markets they’re part of, learn their rules, and choose smarter strategies within them.

Kessler studies what he calls hidden markets — situations where access to opportunity is determined by rules, timing, and human behavior rather than money. “Economists love prices,” he says. “But a lot of important markets don’t rely on them, instead allocating scarce resources through mechanisms other than by letting a price rise.”

“If you don’t understand the rules of markets like hiring decisions, college admissions, and even organ transplants, the outcomes can seem to be based on luck,” Kessler explains. “But once you see how the hidden market works, you can design your own luck by playing the right strategies.”

How to Win in Hidden Markets

Consider something as simple as getting a reservation at a popular restaurant. You might visit the website on a Thursday to book a Saturday night table, only to find the entire month already sold out. That’s because, as Kessler explains, you’re competing in a first-come, first-served race without realizing it.

To succeed in securing a reservation, you first need to understand how the process works. For example, if reservations are released at 10 a.m. on the first day of each month, the people who know that — and are ready to act at that moment — get the best tables. The strategy becomes clear: plan ahead, log in on time, make sure you have a fast internet connection, and sometimes “settle for silver” instead of “going for gold.”

What does Kessler mean by that fourth strategy? “Maybe you go for a 5:30 p.m. reservation instead of 7:30,” says Kessler. “The competition for that slot is less intense, and you’re far more likely to get it. You’ll look lucky, but really you were smart.”

The same principle applies in far higher-stakes situations. College admissions, for instance, operate as what Kessler calls a “choose-me” market, where both sides must choose each other. “Students may think of early decision as a lottery ticket to their dream school,” he says. “But if your top choice is out of reach because your grades and test scores don’t meet the school’s standards, applying early to a school where you’re a stronger candidate is a better strategy. You might feel like you’re settling, but you’re actually improving your odds dramatically.”

This logic extends throughout professional life. Job seekers often focus only on the most prestigious employers, but the smarter play may be targeting organizations that genuinely align with your skills and interests. “In the labor market, success comes from identifying your idiosyncratic preferences, the things you value that others might overlook,” Kessler notes. “Those are the matches that last.”

Becoming the Market Designer

In the book’s second half, Kessler shifts the focus from navigating hidden markets to designing them. He points out that many executives operate within systems of old rules that were created for reasons no one remembers. These rules can persist by habit rather than logic, including how resources such as a leader’s time and attention are allocated. “Your leadership capital is finite,” Kessler explains. “How you distribute and provide access to it depend on the rules you set.”

He encourages executives to look closely at those implicit rules. Who gets on your calendar? Who receives budget allocations or high-visibility assignments? “If your system rewards whoever sends the most follow-up emails, you may be rewarding persistence rather than real need,” Kessler notes.

To illustrate, he draws a striking analogy: for decades, access to water from the Colorado River depended on who first tapped it. Early California farmers claimed rights that endured even as populations and priorities shifted. “We make similar mistakes with our calendars,” Kessler says. “A project that grabbed the 10 a.m. Tuesday slot for a weekly meeting two years ago might still have it, even if our needs have changed. Effective leaders revisit the systems they’ve inherited, viewing time and organizational capacity as hidden markets and replacing the ones that no longer make sense.”

Kessler distills good market design into what he calls the three Es: efficiency, equity, and ease. Systems should allocate time and resources to the right priorities, feel fair to those involved, and be straightforward enough that everyone understands and trusts them. “If employees think access to opportunity is arbitrary or opaque, morale and performance both suffer,” he says.

Wharton’s course-selection system, which Kessler helped research and refine, is illustrative. “We designed Course Match so MBA students can rank their preferences honestly,” he says. “The algorithm then produces the most efficient and equitable schedule possible. No gaming required.” The same principle underlies the medical-residency match and New York City’s public-school admissions process, both designed so participants can simply state their true preferences and trust the outcome.

Democratizing Luck

By revealing how hidden systems work, Kessler aims to level the playing field — not just for executives, but for anyone navigating the complex markets of modern life. From job seekers and students to managers and policymakers, understanding how decisions are structured can turn uncertainty into agency. “If only a few people know how to play these hidden markets, they’ll always win,” Kessler says. “The goal of the book is to make those strategies visible so everyone can use them.”

At its heart, Lucky by Design offers both a mindset and a method. Luck, Kessler argues, favors those who study the systems around them and have the courage to change the ones within their control. “When we do that thoughtfully,” he says, “we make our organizations fairer, more effective, and yes, luckier.”